The Premier League is properly showing out this season
More goals than ever are being scored, and the league table is set up for a three-team photo finish
Much of my audience is American, so I implore those stateside to start paying attention to what’s happening on the pitches across the pond. This is the year you should start tuning into the English Premier League if you haven’t already.
Soccer fandom in America is gaining steam rapidly. The U.S. will be hosting several major tournaments in the coming years like Copa America this summer and the FIFA Club World Cup year next, and of course, hosting most matches of the FIFA World Cup in 2026. But Americans are also discovering rooting interests for many European clubs, from teams considered footballing royalty like Real Madrid to English fourth division upstarts like Wrexham AFC.
Most of Europe’s big domestic leagues are televised on mainstream TV channels like NBC, ESPN and CBS today, and fans have discovered the big games overseas don’t overlap with other sports because of the time difference. Streaming giants like AppleTV are getting in on the action as well with their exclusive deal to broadcast every MLS match for the next decade.
But the real action to tune into right now is in England’s top flight: the Prem.
Unlike years past where the title was Manchester City’s to lose, this year it’s a three-horse race between City, Liverpool and Arsenal. Each of those teams has a legitimate shot at the crown as only two points separate the three teams with 11 matches to go. It’s only the second time in EPL history that three clubs have surpassed the 60-point mark after 27 games, and it’s mathematically the closest the title race has been in the past decade.
Manchester City have won three domestic titles in a row and five of the last six overall. They’ve been a force since Pep Guardiola took over as manager in 2016, but for the first time in half a decade aren’t the odds-on favorites to win the league this deep into the season. They currently have 62 points, one behind Liverpool for the top spot, and one above Arsenal who sit in third.
Of the three teams in the championship race Man City have the lowest goal differential at +35 but the second best expected goal differential (xGD) of +30.4 — Arsenal are the clear favorites in this regard with an xGD of +37.0 goals and +45 actual goals on the season, while the Reds have the lowest xGD (+27.0) of the bunch and the second best actual goal differential (39).
Any way you slice it these three teams are clearly above the rest.
My forecasts give Liverpool a 48 percent chance at winning the league with a projected 87 points, Arsenal 36 percent (86 points) and City 15 percent (84 points). Meanwhile, the three teams that were promoted to the Premier League last season — Luton Town, Burnley and Sheffield United — are the most likely to be relegated again1. Burnley and Sheffield are virtual locks to go down.
This season’s campaign points to a trend taking hold in several of Europe’s top leagues these days: the gap between the league’s top brass and bottom feeders is larger than ever, meaning teams are less likely to be neck-and-neck like this at the end of the season.
The average points totaled by Premier League champions in the league’s first 10 years was 83.72, but that number has grown to 91.2 over the last 10 seasons — close to three extra wins each year. The races between Liverpool and City in 2016-17 and 2018-19 saw the eventual winners eclipse 99 points; but at the same time, the points needed to avoid relegation have only been decreasing. So it’s a little surprising the trophy race is this intoxicating this deep into the year.
But a legitimate title race isn’t the only reason to tune into the Premier League this season. The EPL is witnessing an extraordinary surge in goal scoring, with an average of 3.25 goals netted per game, which is the highest figure in England’s top flight since 1964-65. Americans love high scoring games — and especially can’t stand ties — so to add to the good news, the dreaded nil-nil match is at a years-long nadir thanks to the explosion in goals.
The one game last weekend that looked like it might finish 0-0 was saved from its dull fate when Darwin Nunez’s 99th minute stoppage time header secured a 1-0 win for Liverpool over Nottingham Forest.
Ahmed Walid of The Athletic wrote a nice piece last week digging into the potential reasons for the uptick in scoring we’re seeing:
Increases in extra time in both halves has led to more opportunities to score, especially in high leverage situations.
More attacking play: Goals are coming from transitional situations high up the pitch because Premier League teams are focusing more on pressing and counter-pressing than ever before.
Transitions are on the rise; a game full of transitions leaves more space to attack resulting in odd-man rushes more so than in the past.
A growing gap in quality between the top and bottom of the table is resulting in overall mismatches and high-scoring encounters.
Whether it’s a temporary anomaly or a genuine return to the goal rates of the 1960s remains to be seen. Coupled with a title race the likes we haven’t seen in many years this late into the season the Premier League is a whole heck of a lot of fun to watch right now.
And if you needed extra incentive to watch: this weekend will see one of the most decisively important matches of the season when Liverpool take on City at Anfield. It’ll be the second to last time teams in the current top three play each other before season’s end, but more importantly (narrative-wise), Sunday’s game will be the final chapter in English football’s best rivalry while Guardiola and Liverpool’s Jurgen Klopp are at the helm. The latter announced recently this season would be his last in charge of the Merseyside giants.
Sometimes the relegation battle is more exciting than the championship race.
The first three years of the league were 42-game seasons; now teams play 38 matches.