Odds preview for the 2024 WM Phoenix Open
The People's Open starts Thursday at TPC Scottsdale, and Scottie Scheffler is the favorite to win it for a third consecutive year
Professional golf is in full swing, and while I don’t post about the sport too often, I have extra incentive to pay attention this weekend as I’ll be attending the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, Ariz.
I’m excited to experience the one tournament branded as The People’s Open, which is best known for gaudy attendance numbers, free flowing booze and raucous crowds at the stadium hole at the 16th green. I will provide a full recap of the experience some time next week in this space.
Since it’s also the Super Bowl this weekend — the biggest sports wagering day of the year in America — I figured we could preview the WM using a betting lens: two-time defending champion Scottie Scheffler has the shortest odds at +514 at Pinnacle1 for an implied win probability of about 16 percent. Justin Thomas (+1256) is next at 7.4 percent to win the tourney, followed by Max Homa (+2001) at 4.8 percent and Jordan Spieth (+2147) at 4.5 percent.
Data Golf’s model, which uses a baseline estimate and course history plus fit for each player to estimate win probabilities, also has Scheffler as the top dog, but slightly less so than the sportsbooks do. They also see Thomas, Homa and Spieth having the best odds to finish in the Top-5. Byeong Hun An of South Korea represents a bit of value if you consider Data Golf to be sharper than the books as he’s their fifth most likely player to take home this weekend’s tournament.
Scheffler defended his WM Phoenix Open title after a 6-under 65 in the final round last year, and he’ll be going for a three-peat again this year, albeit in much soggier conditions than what we’re accustomed to seeing in Scottsdale. .
Several notable players will be absent including Viktor Hovland, Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa and Rory McIlroy are all sitting this tournament out.
I like to use Pinnacle because they are often considered to have the sharpest odds and lowest vig.