Nobody saw its Euros knockout chances improve more through the first round of matches than Romania
Tricolorii are now in the driver's seat to advance to the Round of 16 for the first time ever
For the first few days of Euro 2024 we were treated to excellent matches, but mostly chalky results. That all changed when Group E kicked off on Monday.
In the first match of the day in Munich Romania stunned Ukraine with a 3-0 victory to secure only its second-ever win at a European Championship1. That was followed by arguably the biggest upset in Euros history when Slovakia held off Belgium 1-0 in Frankfurt later in the day.
For the Romanians it was a day that started with high hopes despite being pegged as the third best team in the group with a less than 50-50 proposition of getting out, according to many pundits and models. But a few hours later it ended with Tricolorii sitting atop the group with a +3 goal differential and the odds-on favorites to win it.
No team saw its odds improve more than Romania’s 47 percent increase in its chances to advance to the knockout stages2. The eastern Europeans now boast a 92 percent shot at reaching the Round of 16 after starting the tournament at less than 50 percent. Slovakia’s chances improved by 38 points (47 percent to 86 percent), while Belgium saw its odds decrease from 97 percent to 80 percent and Ukraine’s decreased from 73 percent down to 27 percent3.
It started early with Romania’s Nicolae Stanciu hitting a world class goal from distance in the first half that had fans reminiscing of the golden days of Gheorghe Hagi of the 1980s and 90s. Romania kept the pressure up in the second half with goals from Razvan Marin and Denis Dragus to give Romania its perfect start to the Euro 2024 campaign in Group E.
When it was all said and done the yellow wall behind one of the goals at Bayern Munich’s Allianz Arena was jumping and chanting in unison celebrating one of the biggest sporting victories in the country’s history.
While the 3-0 victory gave the Romanians a great chance of advancing to the knockout stage of the Euros for the first time, Slovakia’s monumental upset of group-favorites Belgium put Romania in pole position to reach the Round of 16.
What’s even more eye-popping is Romania’s 29 percent possession figure against Ukraine was the lowest share for a winning team on record (since 1980) in Euros history, according to Opta Analyst.
Romania next plays Belgium on Saturday where another victory will all but guarantee qualification and surely set off a celebration reaching from Cologne all the way to the Romanian capital of Bucharest.
Their first came against England in 2000.
This based on Luke Benz’s highly respected model.