Jimmy Garoppolo is a better QB than people think, but the 49ers can win without him
Garoppolo will likely be missed in the 49ers' run-up to the playoffs, but they have an elite defense to pick up the slack for a deep run in 2022.
SANTA CLARA, Calif. -- The narrative around Jimmy Garoppolo has long been he's a system quarterback that can do the bare minimum to win games, but isn't all that good. But in my opinion, Jimmy G has gotten a bad rap.
Part of the narrative stems from the fact some of his failures have been very public and occurred in high leverage situations1. Remember this?
But putting aside the eye test a bit and digging into the numbers shows Garoppolo may be worth the 1-year, $7-million dollar deal he signed earlier this year2.
The 49ers QB of the future Trey Lance -- drafted third overall in the 2021 Draft -- was seriously injured in the first quarter of Week 2 this season, so San Francisco had turn back to former starter Garoppolo, who was only with the team still due to an awkward offseason that didn't result in a trade deal for him getting done.
Despite that Jimmy G was leading his team to an 8-4 record before breaking a bone in his foot last week against the Miami Dolphins. The 49ers will now have to turn to rookie seventh-round pick Brock Purdy to take the reins of the NFC West leading Niners.
Their Super Bowl odds moved from an implied probability of 12.5 percent to 7.7 percent on the injury development -- a 40 percent drop -- as a result (still better than the 5.8 percent they entered the season with).
As Kevin Cole explained on his podcast this week, Garoppolo is a consistently efficient quarterback, which is more or less expected in Kyle Shanahan's QB-friendly system that features a lot of play action and short passing concepts, but less intuitive if all you can remember are his ill-timed picks with games on the line. Ben Solak of The Ringer put it well in his piece this past week: "As a former second-round pick without elite size, arm strength, or creativity, Garoppolo is often cast as the product of Shanahan’s magic, not the author of his own successes." So the question becomes how replaceable is a quarterback like Garoppolo?
While he often seems quite replaceable, there is a key distinction that puts him among the game's elite quarterbacks: he's good on third down. And that's important.
NFL teams are averaging a nearly 70 percent pass rate on third & 2 and more than 80 percent on third & 3 this season. That means defenses know a pass is likely coming on that down, but despite that, Garoppolo's EPA3 is higher than what it is on early downs. In fact, he ranks in the top-five of all passers with at least 200 dropbacks since 2017 in third down efficiency, according to Cole. The others are Patrick Mahomes, Andrew Luck, Justin Herbert and Aaron Rodgers.
Overall, the 49ers are 43-18 since 2017 with Garoppolo taking the majority of snaps. San Francisco is 8-30 with anyone else. Purdy has big shoes to fill.
Before going down in Week 13 he led all NFC West quarterbacks with a 73.7 passing EPA and had thrown 16 touchdowns to help San Francisco to its one game lead of the Seattle Seahawks headed into Sunday's games.
So Niners fans have reason to worry now that their team is on to its third string QB, especially one that is deemed "Mr. Irrelevant" by virtue of going last in this year's NFL Draft. They'll likely miss Garoppolo's consistent, efficient production under center that often gives the surrounding offensive cast like Deebo Samuel and George Kittle a chance to shine.
But fortunately they have among the best defenses in the NFL.
San Francisco is tied with the Dallas Cowboys with an overall -0.10 defensive EPA/play. Coupled with a top-10 offensive EPA rating the 49ers are one of the best teams in the NFL this season. And even if their offense suffers dramatically with the loss of Jimmy G, the defense should be able to hold its own for a playoff run -- it ranks in the top five against the run and the pass.
EPA (Expected Points Added) ranks4:
On Sunday the 49ers will take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a team that ranks 10th in EPA/play (0.02). The Niners are currently 3.5-point favorites at home, but that's down from around 6-point favorites if Garoppolo were playing.
A soft schedule down the stretch and Shanahan's training-wheels approach to his QB position that helps put play callers in good positions to run the offense give the Niners a good chance at the playoffs. We'll see how far Purdy can take them, and ultimately, how much Garoppolo will be missed.
The 49ers lost to the eventual Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams.
According to spotrac.com: Jimmy Garoppolo signed a 1 year, $7,000,000 contract with the 49ers, including $6,500,000 guaranteed. In 2022, Garoppolo will earn a base salary of $6,500,000, a roster bonus of $382,343, a workout bonus of $600,000 and an incentive bonus of $3,200,000, while carrying a cap hit of $13,991,176.
EPA is Expected Points Added, which is a measure of the change in Expected Points (EP) from play to play. It yields a single measure for the value of every play. EP was created by the nflfastR team using a statistical model trained on historical data, and takes into account features like down, distance, time remaining, whether the game is being played indoors, etc. It helps answer the question “How good of a position is my team in to score as of now?”
Higher EPA on offense is better, while a lower EPA on defense is more desirable. Bold denotes the desirable values.
The 49ers lost to the eventual Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams.
According to spotrac.com: Jimmy Garoppolo signed a 1 year, $7,000,000 contract with the 49ers, including $6,500,000 guaranteed. In 2022 Garoppolo will earn a base salary of $6,500,000, a roster bonus of $382,343, a workout bonus of $600,000 and an incentive bonus of $3,200,000, while carrying a cap hit of $13,991,176.
EPA is Expected Points Added, which is a measure of the change in Expected Points (EP) from play to play. It yields a single measure for the value of every play. EP was created by the nflfastR team using a statistical model trained on historical data, and takes into account features like down, distance, time remaining, whether the game is being played indoors, etc. It helps answer the question “How good of a position is my team in to score as of now?”
Higher EPA on offense is better, while a lower EPA on defense is more desirable. Bold denotes the desirable values.