Betting on the Sharks is becoming a winning strategy
The playoffs are still a stretch, but San Jose is surpassing oddsmakers' expectations, and are among the most exciting teams to watch in the NHL this season
SAN JOSE, Calif. — The last time I wrote about the San Jose Sharks I was lamenting how they were one of the worst NHL teams we had seen in recent memory. But the young duo of Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith have changed the narrative in San Jose this season.
Nobody expected the kind of season they’re having this year. Led by Celebrini, who has 74 points in 50 games (fourth in the league despite being 19 years old) entering Tuesday, San Jose is in the middle of a playoff race in the Pacific Division — currently the No. 2 Wild Card spot in the Western Conference.
But despite the hype, and the entertaining product they’ve put on the ice every night, oddsmakers haven’t given the Sharks much of a chance to win in their games this season.
SJHockeyNow wrote last week about how a theoretical bettor would have made more than $1,000 in profit by simply picking the Sharks moneyline1 in every game this season. I say theoretical because no one in their right mind would do that.
San Jose has been favored just three times2 this season, all three instances coming at home — the Sharks were a -103 favorite ahead of their Nov. 28 win over the Vancouver Canucks, a -131 favorite ahead of their loss the Seattle Kraken on Dec. 20 and a -120 favorite against the New York Rangers on Jan. 23.
Over the last three seasons the Sharks have been favored just six times out of 214 games (2.8% of the time), according to data gathered by Moneyline.com. During the 2023-24 season, en route to drafting Celebrini, the Sharks were underdogs in every game but one. On average for the entire season the Sharks’ pre-game market-implied win probability hovered near 30% the last two years3.
This year, however, the team has turned over a new leaf. The Sharks are 26-21-3 overall, with six more wins than they had all of last season. They’ve now been favored by bookmakers in 6% of games (3/50 games played) with an average win probability hovering near 40% this season. And the Sharks have returned the favor for bettors going 33-17 against the spread so far this campaign. As a result SAP Center has sold out multiple games this season and has been noticeably more energized the past few months as well — reminding us of the Shark Tank of old.
The national media really started paying attention after a December game in which the Sharks overcame a 5-1 third-period deficit to defeat the Pittsburgh Penguins 6-5 in overtime. Listen to play-by-play vice Randy Hahn get progressively more hoarse as San Jose started making its comeback:
The expected goals chart tells the story of what Hahn said was one of the greatest comebacks in franchise history:
The rebuild probably isn’t over yet, but San Jose certainly plays high event hockey which gives it a chance to win any game. That’s in contrast to previous seasons where the Sharks seemed outgunned from the moment the puck dropped.
Their underlying numbers still aren’t great — the Sharks sit near the bottom of the league in 5v5 xG share (31st), Corsi For % (32nd) and Scoring Chances For (30th). But they’re in the middle of a playoff race thanks to how tight of a division the Pacific has turned out to be. Just two points separate them from the Los Angeles Kings, Seattle Kraken and Anaheim Ducks which are all vying for either the second playoff spot in the division or one of the West’s Wild Card bids.
That being said the Sharks currently have the 26th longest odds to win the Stanley Cup, based on implied win probabilities when looking at an average of a variety of popular sportsbooks’ futures odds (see below). They have slightly better chances when looking at more analytical forecasts such as those from Moneypuck, The Athletic or Neil Paine’s Elo-based odds.
Moneypuck, for example, gives San Jose a 40% chance to reach the playoffs as of January 26, and Paine gives the Sharks a 33% chance. They currently own a .550 points percentage and, along with the Ducks, are only one of two teams in the Pacific with more win than losses this season. At even strength they have the league’s sixth-best shooting percentage at 10.5% thanks to Celebrini’s likely unsustainably-high 15.2% shooting percentage at five-on-five this season, so we may expect to see some regression from him and the rest of the team going forward.
Either way San Jose is a fun team to tune into this season, and while not likely, a playoff run might be in the cards which would likely surprise fans, forecasters and bookmakers alike.
Moneyline bets are wagers on the outright winners of games. For example, the Sharks were +250 underdogs before their game against the Tampa Bay Lightning on Jan. 20. A $100 wager on the Sharks would’ve won you $250 on top of your money back. Negative values represent the favorite, while positive values represent the underdog.
As of this writing. They’re trending to be favored in their January 27 matchup against Vancouver as well.